After twenty years of closed borders, hostility and separated families, the ice has melted, and relations have normalised. But will these two nations be able to make this work or have other factors doomed peace before it has even begun?
The war
For some context, the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border War lasted from 1998 to 2000, costing some 100,000 lives, both soldiers and civilians. Although there was a cessation of hostilities in 2000, relations remained tense, mainly due to the unhappiness of the Ethiopian government over the conditions of the Algiers Agreement. This peace deal stipulated that the disputed border town of Badme, which was itself a principal reason for the conflict, would belong to Eritrea, a condition that Ethiopia could not accept. Thus, the embassies, phone lines and borders between the two countries were sealed, separating hundreds of people caught on either side, from their friends and families.
But things have changed under Ethiopia’s new prime minister,
Abiy Ahmed, who announced an acceptance of the full terms of the Algiers
Agreement and met with Eritrean president, Isaias Afwerki, to seal the deal.
A shot at peace?
But can it hold? As the confetti is swept up from the jubilant scenes and spectators look beyond the celebrations, this is the question everyone is asking.
There are four main threats to lasting peace: the specific
terms of the peace deal; the Ethiopian military; the consequences for Afwerki’s
regime; and the geo-political movements of the region.
1. Details of the deal
First, to the terms of the deal. Ethiopia will, despite having won the war, withdraw all military forces from the area awarded to Eritrea under the Algiers Agreement. But what does this mean for the Ethiopian residents in the disputed zones, who will surely object to suddenly becoming foreigners in their own homes? Furthermore, the two sides will have to agree on a whole host of political and economical regulations, not least the new borderline, as well as developing the infrastructure around it, which can always lead to tensions on the ground. Then, there are the new trade regulations that will have to be agreed upon, what tariffs will be imposed and many smaller but possibly destructive details.
2. The Ethiopian military
Until recently, they were the real power behind the government: it was them who fought and directed the war, losing tens of thousands of troops in the process, but essentially leading Ethiopia to victory. To them, the new deal is unlikely to be seen as anything more than a total capitulation to Eritrea. It will represent a further weakening of their power and influence both in Ethiopia and in the region. So far, they have complied. But whether their acquiescence will last remains to be seen.
3. Afwerki's grip on power
His regime has long been an autocracy, keeping a tight control on the civilian population, as well as the reins of government. And the Ethiopian threat has been one of the crucial justifications for his stranglehold of the country and his policy of conscription, which has maintained the Eritrean military’s strength. With the excuse gone, it will be harder for him to justify the need for such autocracy. Furthermore, open borders and the free flow of people will threaten his tight control on a no longer isolated population who yearn for change.
4. The regional geopolitics
With issues ranging from the rivalry between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over control of the Nile to the spat between the Gulf States, whose influence abounds on the nations of the Horn, there are situations that imperil peace from every angle. In many international issues, Ethiopia and Eritrea have usually taken opposing sides, an overflow of their own dispute in the geo-politics of the region. Whether they can now change those views and agree on specific international issues that will almost certainly threaten to re-emerge once all the internal details are dealt with, also remains to be seen. If not, however, it could once again pit them against each other on the international stage and jeopardise all the hard work that has gone into creating peace.
These are issues that will have to be tackled once the dust
has settled on the celebrations. If they can be resolved, it will likely herald
a new age in relations in the Horn of Africa. If not, it could quickly spiral
back to the tension of the last twenty years, or worse. The hand of history
will be heavy upon the shoulders of these two leaders.
