Can Somalia’s president solve the problem of al-Shabaab?

As each successive Somali president has come to power, they have doen so promising to bring an end to jihadist group which has been a thorn in the government's side for over ten years now. But can the latest leader follow through?

Several days ago, fighters from al-Shabaab, a jihadist group in southern Somalia, seized the town of Kalabeyr from Somali military and African Union forces. This incident is the latest in a string of victories for the group, which has experienced a resurgence this year. 

The militants, who claim allegiance to al-Qaeda, have been plaguing the Somali government for almost a decade, whilst also executing multiple attacks in Uganda and Kenya. Successive Somali presidents have come to power promising to defeat al-Shabaab but none has succeeded. In February, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo won the latest presidential election, pledging to put an end to the jihadists. But can he have any more success than his predecessors?

Who are al-Shabaab?

al-Shabaab, which means ‘The Youth’, emerged as the radical wing of the Union of Islamic Courts, a group of Sharia courts, which controlled much of the country, including the capital Mogadishu. The Courts were overthrown in 2006, when Ethiopian forces invaded, supposedly in support of the Western-backed Federal government although this was probably more for their own geopolitical reasons, than for the benefit of their neighbours.

The remnants became al-Shabaab, whose fighters began an insurgency against the government and their allies: a conglomerate of troops deployed to Somalia as part of the AU mission (AMISOM). The militants quickly took control of much of the lower half of the country, as well as parts of Mogadishu. 

But when Kenyan forces began attacking from the south, they lost control of crucial territory, including the port of Kismayo, which served as an important source of revenue for them. However, a corrupt and ineffective government failed to take advantage of a weakened al-Shabaab and the group is now back on the front foot, gaining territory once more.

The two pronged approach

To defeat al-Shabaab, President Farmajo’s strategy relies on two approaches: first, he has promised an amnesty, aimed mostly at the low-level fighters, many of whom are Somali youths whose main motivations for fighting are money and food. 

The second approach seeks to bolster the military with trained, armed and most importantly, paid soldiers, who will be strong enough to defeat the jihadists. But this military strategy has many flaws, primarily that the army is weak, divided by clan politics and corrupt. Added to this, it is not enough to simply regain territory; to hold it, one must follow up military victories with effective political control, something the government has failed to do.

The long road ahead...

The amnesty, which has supposedly expired, has experienced minor success, with a few fighters surrendering. Alongside this, Farmajo has begun the process of strengthening the Somali military and has asked the international community, which is assisting with training, to lift an arms embargo. 

However, with AMISOM troops set to begin withdrawing next year, he has a major challenge ahead. With the help of disgruntled clans, al-Shabaab has put an ineffective Somali military on the retreat. As they grow bolder, the jihadists have struck as far north as Puntland, whilst at the same time Mogadishu is wracked with bombings. 

If they can regain control of Kismayo, it would likely ensure the war continues for some years yet. And there are other challenges facing Farmajo: a worsening famine, lingering clan conflicts and a fragmented administration. To win, he will have to get the clans on his side and create an effective and motivated fighting force. With international support it is possible, but he faces a long road ahead.