Just as the US is looking to draw down it’s presence in Africa, al-Shabaab has made a bold attack that has left three Americans dead. So, what will be the effect on US security policy in the Horn of Africa?
On Sunday 5 January, just before dawn, militants from the
Somalia-based terror group, al-Shabaab, launched
an attack on Camp Simba, a shared US and Kenyan military base on the island
of Manda near Lamu. After breaching the fence and allegedly destroying
several military vehicles and aircraft, Kenyan troops managed to repulse the attack
but not after several Kenyan soldiers and three US personnel, two contractors
and one serving member, were killed.
It’s the first major attack against a US position in Kenya
and therefore represents a significant escalation of activity, possibly a sign
that al-Shabaab is entering an even more aggressive phase of their campaign.
The last US casualty in Somalia was a Special Forces soldier killed
in 2018 whilst assisting an African Union (AU) tactical mission in Somalia.
Although that would have been a significant moment for the group, it was not
the result of a highly planned operation such as this. This attack shows a
coordinated effort to directly target US forces.
US drawdown in Africa
The audacious assault comes less than a month after The
Pentagon announced
the possibility of a major drawdown or even complete pullout of US military
personnel throughout Africa (although that would focus more heavily on West
Africa).
With Trump’s ‘America First’ policy and his insistence that
the US take a back seat in ‘global policing’, the crucial US support in Somalia
hangs in the balance. AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) troops are
heavily reliant on both US Special Forces training and on key air support from
US drones and aircraft. Without that support, it is likely that the AU’s attempt to
contain al-Shabaab will falter.
The position of the AU
The AMISOM presence itself was supposed to end in 2019
but was extended for one
year to support stability before Somali elections in 2020. Whether it will
be extended again remains to be seen, but with the possibility of AU troop
withdrawals and a US drawdown on men and equipment, the likelihood for a major
al-Shabaab resurgence in 2020 has increased.
Then there is also the geopolitical competition in the
region to consider. Nations such as the UAE, Turkey, Qatar, China and others
are jostling
for influence in the crucial area that overlooks shipping through the Red
Sea. A US withdrawal would leave a vacuum in support for the Somali government
in their struggle against al-Shabaab and a rise in influence in the region for
whoever should step in to provide it.
A US response
However, the death of the US personnel as a result of a
direct attack could also mark a small but crucial marker in the US fight against
al-Shabaab. There is a possibility that this loss will drive many in the
Pentagon to seek a bolstering of their presence in the Horn, both to counter
the insurgents and to fend off any rivalry from the other players.
The real question is: will an erratic and unpredictable
commander-in-chief in the form of Trump be swayed by his generals on the one
hand or the ghosts of Afghanistan and the infamous Battle for Mogadishu in 1993
(in which 18 Americans were killed) on the other.
The beginnings of a new strategy
In the meantime, the Camp Simba attack is being touted as a
victory by al- Shabaab and in the aftermath, US reaction is crucial. What is
certain is that 2020, with Somali elections, a possible US drawdown, the end of
the AU mission and the increasing jostling of foreign powers, will be a hugely
important year for al-Shabaab’s strategy. Perhaps we have just seen the first
step in it.
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